The Indomitable Covid Virus

wtg

It’s a major wave now, with an estimated new 900,000 infections per day, as my friend Jay Weiland estimated based on the 2 sources of US wastewater data (definitely worth following him at X or Threads). The slope of rise of SARS-CoV-2 levels is still steep, so we haven’t yet reached the plateau. It’s already towered beyond 4 prior waves of the US pandemic.

Why is this happening?

The virus is relentlessly evolving, getting further and further away as an antigen (how our immune system “sees” the virus) than the strains of virus in the early years of the pandemic. The antigenic distance map below reflects that evolution. JN.1 is further way from the infamous Omicron BA.1 than BA.1 is from the major variants of 2020 and 2021 (Wuhan-ancestral, D614G, Alpha, Delta, Beta). KP.3 and KP.3.1.1. is to the right of JN.1 (not shown), even further away. The virus will not stop here, despite our desire to will it way. It will continue to find new ways to infect and reinfect us, under selection pressure from our prior immunity (be it infections, vaccinations, or combinations). We may also see another “Omicron-like event” in the times ahead, with a profoundly altered virus spike, tens of new mutations, as seen with BA.1 and BA.2.86 (the latter eventually led to JN.1)

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-indomitable-covid-virus?publication_id=587835&post_id=147307217&isFreemail=true&r=1v8sh2&triedRedirect=true

Mik

Reminds me I need to get the latest booster.

wtg

Yea, the new version should be out soon, August or September...

https://www.uchealth.org/today/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-2024-25-covid-19-vaccine/

ShiroKuro

This is on my radar since I’ve been at an academic conference (with about 300 attendees from overseas and 200+ from the U.S.) for the last five days. I’m on the organizing committee, so there are various events I have to attend (over and above the sessions), including dinners. As well as staffing the registration tables etc. I’ve been trying to mask consistently but it’s hard when you can’t eat in private.

I’m headed home now. I guess I’ll know in about a week if I picked up anything or not…

And then I’ll keep masking as we head into fall semester. Sigh.

Rontuner

I didn't attend, but I've been hearing that many of the piano techs that attended the convention this year are testing positive for COVID...

jon-nyc

I’ve got the European Respiratory Society in a month in Vienna. Thousands of people in a huge conference room. I’m going to try to get another booster beforehand.

The fact that it’s mostly pulmonologists doesn’t make it any safer. The US equivalent (American Thoracic Society) was a superspreader event in 2022.

ShiroKuro

Yep big conferences are the perfect model for super spreader events.

I’m finally heading home , have been masking the whole time except for meals. So far, so far.

Now I’m wondering about the timing of the next shot.

wtg

FDA has approved the new version of the COVID vaccines

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/08/22/updated-covid-19-vaccines-fda/74871327007/

AdagioM

Waiting to see when it actually becomes available; I’m due for a jab.

Steve Miller

Me too.

CHAS

@#$%!!! We leave on a trip to see Bob's brother and a high school reunion for me September 7.

wtg

@AdagioM said in The Indomitable Covid Virus:

Waiting to see when it actually becomes available; I’m due for a jab.

Should be very soon.

Pfizer will begin shipping its new shot immediately and expects it to be available in pharmacies, hospitals and clinics across the U.S. “beginning in the coming days,” the company said in a statement. Moderna also expects its shot to be available in a similar time frame, according to a statement.

ShiroKuro

I’m wanting to get it too! And one for Mr SK.

Axtremus

@jon-nyc said in The Indomitable Covid Virus:

The fact that it’s mostly pulmonologists doesn’t make it any safer. The US equivalent (American Thoracic Society) was a superspreader event in 2022.

Physicians, heal thy selves!

Yeah, I've been waiting for the updates shots to become available too.

DougG

Available at CVS now - I have my appointment for Wednesday.

AdagioM

I’ll check with our local CVS. Thanks, Doug!

Mik

Too late. Never saw that T line turn red so fast. Feel like a truck hit me. Vaxxed up until about last fall, had it I think this is either the third or fourth time. I should be able to mount a pretty robust immune defense.

ShiroKuro

Oh no @Mik hope you feel better soon!!

wtg

@Mik

Bummer. Hope it doesn't get any worse/last very long.

Mr wtg is having knee replacement on Monday. We've been masking when we go out, and I decided to just completely avoid stores for the next week or so. We both got sick last year around this time, our first time. I'd prefer to skip a second iteration, especially since he'll be recovering from surgery and doesn't need a case of COVID on top of TKR to feel extra-miserable.

Mik

Wise approach. According to the test I have a very high viral load. Cannot for the life of me figure out where I may have gotten it. We’re pretty careful.