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The Indomitable Covid Virus

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  • wtgW Offline
    wtgW Offline
    wtg
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    It’s a major wave now, with an estimated new 900,000 infections per day, as my friend Jay Weiland estimated based on the 2 sources of US wastewater data (definitely worth following him at X or Threads). The slope of rise of SARS-CoV-2 levels is still steep, so we haven’t yet reached the plateau. It’s already towered beyond 4 prior waves of the US pandemic.

    Why is this happening?

    The virus is relentlessly evolving, getting further and further away as an antigen (how our immune system “sees” the virus) than the strains of virus in the early years of the pandemic. The antigenic distance map below reflects that evolution. JN.1 is further way from the infamous Omicron BA.1 than BA.1 is from the major variants of 2020 and 2021 (Wuhan-ancestral, D614G, Alpha, Delta, Beta). KP.3 and KP.3.1.1. is to the right of JN.1 (not shown), even further away. The virus will not stop here, despite our desire to will it way. It will continue to find new ways to infect and reinfect us, under selection pressure from our prior immunity (be it infections, vaccinations, or combinations). We may also see another “Omicron-like event” in the times ahead, with a profoundly altered virus spike, tens of new mutations, as seen with BA.1 and BA.2.86 (the latter eventually led to JN.1)

    https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-indomitable-covid-virus?publication_id=587835&post_id=147307217&isFreemail=true&r=1v8sh2&triedRedirect=true

    When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

    1 Reply Last reply
    • MikM Offline
      MikM Offline
      Mik
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      Reminds me I need to get the latest booster.

      “I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
      ― Douglas Adams

      1 Reply Last reply
      • wtgW Offline
        wtgW Offline
        wtg
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        Yea, the new version should be out soon, August or September...

        https://www.uchealth.org/today/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-2024-25-covid-19-vaccine/

        When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

        1 Reply Last reply
        • ShiroKuroS Offline
          ShiroKuroS Offline
          ShiroKuro
          wrote on last edited by
          #4

          This is on my radar since I’ve been at an academic conference (with about 300 attendees from overseas and 200+ from the U.S.) for the last five days. I’m on the organizing committee, so there are various events I have to attend (over and above the sessions), including dinners. As well as staffing the registration tables etc. I’ve been trying to mask consistently but it’s hard when you can’t eat in private.

          I’m headed home now. I guess I’ll know in about a week if I picked up anything or not… 🤞🤞🤞

          And then I’ll keep masking as we head into fall semester. Sigh.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • RontunerR Offline
            RontunerR Offline
            Rontuner
            wrote on last edited by
            #5

            I didn't attend, but I've been hearing that many of the piano techs that attended the convention this year are testing positive for COVID...

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Offline
              J Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
              #6

              I’ve got the European Respiratory Society in a month in Vienna. Thousands of people in a huge conference room. I’m going to try to get another booster beforehand.

              The fact that it’s mostly pulmonologists doesn’t make it any safer. The US equivalent (American Thoracic Society) was a superspreader event in 2022.

              AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
              • ShiroKuroS Offline
                ShiroKuroS Offline
                ShiroKuro
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                Yep big conferences are the perfect model for super spreader events.

                I’m finally heading home , have been masking the whole time except for meals. So far, so far.

                Now I’m wondering about the timing of the next shot.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • wtgW Offline
                  wtgW Offline
                  wtg
                  wrote on last edited by wtg
                  #8

                  FDA has approved the new version of the COVID vaccines

                  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/08/22/updated-covid-19-vaccines-fda/74871327007/

                  When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • AdagioMA Offline
                    AdagioMA Offline
                    AdagioM
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    Waiting to see when it actually becomes available; I’m due for a jab.

                    wtgW 1 Reply Last reply
                    • S Offline
                      S Offline
                      Steve Miller
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #10

                      Me too.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • C Offline
                        C Offline
                        CHAS
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #11

                        @#$%!!! We leave on a trip to see Bob's brother and a high school reunion for me September 7.

                        “I’m at an age when remembering something right away is as good as an orgasm.”—Gloria Steinem to Julia Louis-Dreyfus on Wiser Than Me

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • AdagioMA AdagioM

                          Waiting to see when it actually becomes available; I’m due for a jab.

                          wtgW Offline
                          wtgW Offline
                          wtg
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #12

                          @AdagioM said in The Indomitable Covid Virus:

                          Waiting to see when it actually becomes available; I’m due for a jab.

                          Should be very soon.

                          Pfizer will begin shipping its new shot immediately and expects it to be available in pharmacies, hospitals and clinics across the U.S. “beginning in the coming days,” the company said in a statement. Moderna also expects its shot to be available in a similar time frame, according to a statement.

                          When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • ShiroKuroS Offline
                            ShiroKuroS Offline
                            ShiroKuro
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #13

                            I’m wanting to get it too! And one for Mr SK.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J jon-nyc

                              I’ve got the European Respiratory Society in a month in Vienna. Thousands of people in a huge conference room. I’m going to try to get another booster beforehand.

                              The fact that it’s mostly pulmonologists doesn’t make it any safer. The US equivalent (American Thoracic Society) was a superspreader event in 2022.

                              AxtremusA Offline
                              AxtremusA Offline
                              Axtremus
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #14

                              @jon-nyc said in The Indomitable Covid Virus:

                              The fact that it’s mostly pulmonologists doesn’t make it any safer. The US equivalent (American Thoracic Society) was a superspreader event in 2022.

                              Physicians, heal thy selves!

                              Yeah, I've been waiting for the updates shots to become available too.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • DougGD Offline
                                DougGD Offline
                                DougG
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #15

                                Available at CVS now - I have my appointment for Wednesday.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • AdagioMA Offline
                                  AdagioMA Offline
                                  AdagioM
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #16

                                  I’ll check with our local CVS. Thanks, Doug!

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Offline
                                    MikM Offline
                                    Mik
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #17

                                    Too late. Never saw that T line turn red so fast. Feel like a truck hit me. Vaxxed up until about last fall, had it I think this is either the third or fourth time. I should be able to mount a pretty robust immune defense.

                                    “I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
                                    ― Douglas Adams

                                    wtgW D 2 Replies Last reply
                                    • ShiroKuroS Offline
                                      ShiroKuroS Offline
                                      ShiroKuro
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #18

                                      Oh no @Mik hope you feel better soon!!

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Mik

                                        Too late. Never saw that T line turn red so fast. Feel like a truck hit me. Vaxxed up until about last fall, had it I think this is either the third or fourth time. I should be able to mount a pretty robust immune defense.

                                        wtgW Offline
                                        wtgW Offline
                                        wtg
                                        wrote on last edited by wtg
                                        #19

                                        @Mik

                                        Bummer. Hope it doesn't get any worse/last very long.

                                        Mr wtg is having knee replacement on Monday. We've been masking when we go out, and I decided to just completely avoid stores for the next week or so. We both got sick last year around this time, our first time. I'd prefer to skip a second iteration, especially since he'll be recovering from surgery and doesn't need a case of COVID on top of TKR to feel extra-miserable.

                                        When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • MikM Offline
                                          MikM Offline
                                          Mik
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #20

                                          Wise approach. According to the test I have a very high viral load. Cannot for the life of me figure out where I may have gotten it. We’re pretty careful.

                                          “I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
                                          ― Douglas Adams

                                          wtgW 1 Reply Last reply
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