Crazy Man on another rampage
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@Mik said in Crazy Man on another rampage:
In his defense they were constantly adjusting the Biden numbers down after announcing.
Maybe you should learn a bit more about how the BLS works.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm
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Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called President Donald Trump's accusation without providing evidence that the top Bureau of Labor Statistics official manipulated jobs report numbers "a preposterous charge" on Sunday.
Speaking with "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos, Summers said that one official would not be able to change the numbers.
"These numbers are put together by teams of literally hundreds of people following detailed procedures that are in manuals. There's no conceivable way that the head of the BLS could have manipulated this number," Summers said.
He added, "The numbers are in line with what we're seeing from all kinds of private sector sources. This is the stuff of democracies giving way to authoritarianism. It — firing statisticians goes with threatening the heads of newspapers. It goes with launching assaults on universities. It goes with launching assaults on law firms that defend clients that the elected boss finds uncongenial. This is really scary stuff."
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Some Republicans don't think the firing was the best idea.
@wtg said in Crazy Man on another rampage:
Some Republicans don't think the firing was the best idea.
Many more Republicans found ways to say it's a the BEST, MOST BEAUTIFUL idea EVAH!
When Trump Changes His Mind, Republicans Find a Way to Fall in Line
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So what happens if the BLS numbers aren't reliable anymore
No savvy investor makes a decision off a single data point, but there are some numbers that carry more weight than others.
For many macro investors, the North Star has long been the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unit within the Department of Labor that measures, among other things, inflation, unemployment rates, and wage growth.
Those in charge of the BLS have long been non-partisan economists, but President Donald Trump's firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on August 1 and his top pick for her replacement, chief economist at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni, have many concerned with the validity of future government data, especially as Antoni floated pausing monthly jobs reports.
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It's concerning for macro traders who rely on this data to make their bets, but there are non-governmental data sources that many already use. While helpful, these alternative databases can't replicate the widespread foundation BLS numbers provided for decades, where all market participants worked for the same set of basic facts about the state of the world's biggest economy. Still, traders are ramping up their use of this data in light of Trump's moves.
"What's going to be tricky here is how to judge numbers coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics moving forward," said Andreas Steno Larsen, onetime macro investor and researcher, on his weekly podcast. He compared the firing to something that would happen "in Latin America" and predicted that investors would "look for alternative sources" to get a second opinion on the official data.
