Senate polling points to Dem takeover

[jon-nyc]

There’s an error here, Ossoff is the incumbent so this seat wouldn’t be a flip.

But still this points to a Dem senate. Polymarket has it at 53% chance too. And that’s FoxNews polling!

[jon-nyc]

Of course a lot can change in 3 months

[jon-nyc]

Collins has a history of outperforming her polls. Still I’m encouraged t these results.

[Piano*Dad]

Yes, Rogers could lose in MI and Peltola could carry Alaska ...

Hard to imagine big national changes that would undermine Democratic candidates. A lot easier to imagine national changes that reinforce this polling. The war in the middle east is all loss for the GOP. If it ends with obvious US concessions, they're toast. "Trump lost a war of choice and weakened our troops!" If it continues, they're toast. The stuff about the Navy has got to be worrying them, especially if Democratic candidates (the ones with a brain) broadcast ad after ad with Trump saying he thinks the yearlong deployment of our carriers is "not long enough." Elaine Luria in my area will kick Jen Kiggans' GOP incumbent ass in November over this, I'm sure. And that's a battle of two ex-military people. Even without our Virginia redistricting three GOP House seats are at risk.

[jon-nyc]

@Piano-Dad said:

Yes, Rogers could lose in MI

If the Dem wave is big enough, it could carry El-Sayed too.

But it didn’t have to be this way. According to The Economist shortly before the primary, the generic Dem had a 84% win probability over the generic republican on the senate ballot. A few days later when El-Sayed won, Rogers had the advantage by 4 percentage pts.

This is starting to remind me of the tea party a decade ago or Maga in 2018 and 2022. A number of winnable seats were lost because primary voters put someone too extreme on the ballot.

[Daniel]

The Navy situation is tragic.

It would be great if the Democrats took the Senate.

I wish the minority leader would resign, however.