@Axtremus I don't think they can. I don't really know, but if there's one person I'd turn to for an answer, it's Jen Rubin.
From TPM today:
There’s a New Budget Showdown. Senate Dems’ Current Plan Is Bullshit
I agonized for a bit about the point I’m about to discuss. But I didn’t agonize for long because I decided there was not much to agonize about. The topic is the September federal budget showdown, essentially a replay of the March “continuing resolution” drama in which Democrats had their first shot at real leverage against Donald Trump. As you’ll remember, Democrats under Chuck Schumer’s leadership decided to hold out for nothing. This was not only a missed opportunity. It’s fair to say it drove a catastrophic collapse of confidence in the Democratic Party’s elected leadership in Washington, DC., an impact that has been reverberating through national and opposition politics ever since.
Now we have a literal replay of that moment. The White House again needs Democrats’ vote in the Senate for a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Democratic leaders have been insisting they won’t make the same mistake again, and recent reports suggest President Trump’s increasingly aggressive attempts to seize budget authority from Congress all but assure a government shutdown at the end of the month. But a closer look suggests that Senate Democrats will insist on no meaningful brakes on Trump’s lawless actions and may, perversely, help him hold Congress next year.
Much of what I’m about to explain comes from general reporting and observation over recent weeks but also a report this morning from Punchbowl. The gist is that Senate Democrats may make their ask a short-term extension of the Obamacare subsidies which were cut as part of the President’s budget bill. Those subsidies are important. Cutting them will lead to millions of Americans losing their health insurance. Critically, those cuts kick in before the 2026 midterms, while many of the other cuts are intentionally timed to kick in after the midterms. But this move doesn’t actually restore the subsidies, just delays the cuts past the election.
I said I briefly agonized over this because even for a few months those subsidies and the coverage they provide have a big effect on people’s lives. But what we’re really talking about here is a short-term extension, which makes it far more likely these subsidies will never come back on a permanent basis, especially if Democrats fail to regain control of one or both houses of Congress in 2026. You need to read the room and understand the moment you’re in. Democrats are in a battle for everything. Helping Republicans remain in total power in Washington, DC in exchange for momentary relief is not the answer.
To be clear, Democrats should insist that Republicans undo these cuts. It should be a centerpiece of their continuing attacks on the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” They’re not trying and certainly shouldn’t try to prevent Republicans from doing this. The key is that smart Republicans already see that cutting the Obamacare subsidies was a mistake. It endangered a lot of House Republicans in swing districts. And, not surprisingly, it’s endangered those who, as the Punchbowl piece notes, are trying to make a “bipartisan” deal for an extension only until the midterms so they don’t lose their elections. Republicans are divided on this. The ones who really like the cuts don’t want to touch them. They think they’re good policy. I suspect the White House would like Democrats’ cover to push these cuts until the midterms because Trump sees losing control of Congress as an existential threat.
Note the position of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) in this passage from the Punchbowl piece …
But here’s the rub: At this point, Republican party leaders seem less than eager about extending these subsidies. “Incredibly unpopular within the conference, expensive, bad policy, etc.,” one senior House GOP leadership aide said of an extension.
Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) bashed the subsidies in July and ruled out an extension without significant changes.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Wednesday there’s some interest within his conference on extending the credits, but he put the onus on Democrats to “come to us with a suggestion, a solution, about how to address it.”
A bipartisan deal on the Obamacare subsidies could help ease Senate passage of a government-funding bill, given that Democratic votes will be needed. But there’d likely be a significant dropoff in GOP votes. And if Republicans will only accept a short-term or limited extension, that might not be a deal worth taking for Democrats.
Thune doesn’t want to lose his majority either. That’s much less likely than Republicans losing the House. But it is possible. He’s basically asking Democrats to step forward to help him.
My understanding is that some version of this is the Democrats’ plan, at least tentatively. It matches with the general focus on health care coverage, which is definitely a positive (despite what some say). And it fits with what still seems to remain Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ focus on some kind of bipartisan deal. If this remains the case, it is just another confirmation that Democrats need new leadership in both houses of Congress. Neither Schumer nor Jeffries are able to respond to what the moment demands. I have more sympathy for Schumer. He’s a politician of the ’80s and ’90s. That doesn’t make him any more able to fit the needs of the moment. But it at least explains why he is unable to. What Jeffries’ excuse is I have no idea.
The excuses back in March were that Democrats hit the need to fight at the final moment and simply hadn’t laid any of the groundwork for doing so — a complete failure. The other rationale was that a shutdown would actually make it easier for Trump to slash and denude the federal government. It would make it easier for him to shut the government down permanently. In retrospect, that argument appears absurd, which indeed it always was. When you consider what’s happened since March, it’s actually hard to distinguish what’s happening now from a shutdown.
Donald Trump is unpopular and getting more unpopular. There’s a good chance the electoral backlash he’s courting will come regardless of how feckless congressional Democrats act. The American system is, in the final analysis, a zero-sum one. Democrats remain the only viable tool available for voters to punish Republicans and vice versa. The popularity of Democrats is lower than it has been in years. History suggests it’s the unpopularity of Republicans, not Democrats, that will rule the 2026 elections. But when you look at the factors weighing down Democrats, it’s not crime or trans rights or wokeness. It’s the deep-seated belief among independents and Democratic voters that Democrats are weak and feckless; their nominal positions don’t matter because they’re either unwilling or unable to fight for them.
None of this is set in stone. It’s all malleable if Democratic voters make their position clear now. But time is of the essence because the crunch moment is only a few weeks away.
