Swing States Remain Underwater
The most politically significant story lies in the states that regularly decide national elections.
Trump is now underwater in every major battleground state:
Arizona: -11
Georgia: -21
Nevada: -16
North Carolina: -13
Pennsylvania: -12
Wisconsin: -14
Florida: -9
Ohio: -8
Several of those states have crossed important thresholds since Trump took office. Florida has moved from +9 to -9. Ohio has fallen from +8 to -8. Nevada has shifted from an even 0 to -16, while North Carolina has gone from 0 to -13.
The deficits are not insurmountable, but they underscore a consistent pattern heading into the midterms: Trump’s standing remains weakest in the states likely to play the biggest role in determining control of Congress.
Where Approval Has Fallen The Most
Every state in the tracker shows a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025.
The biggest declines have often occurred in states where Trump initially enjoyed some of his strongest support.
Among the largest drops:
Kentucky: +23 to -1 (down 24 points)
Wyoming: +47 to +26 (down 21 points)
Florida: +9 to -9 (down 18 points)
Idaho: +34 to +14 (down 20 points)
West Virginia: +35 to +18 (down 17 points)
Tennessee: +25 to +8 (down 17 points)
Texas: +6 to -10 (down 16 points)
Nevada: 0 to -16 (down 16 points)
Georgia: -4 to -21 (down 17 points)
Ohio: +8 to -8 (down 16 points)
The pattern is striking because the largest shifts are not concentrated only in Democratic states. Many have occurred in places where Trump started his second term with a substantial cushion.
