On April 8, Nick Catoggio, my Dispatch colleague, dubbed an earlier stoppage with Iran âSchrödingerâs ceasefire.â This was a reference to the famous thought experiment by the physicist Erwin Schrödinger, who was trying to explain the weirdness of âsuperpositionalityâ in quantum physics.
A cat in a box is both dead and alive at the same time until you open the box. Schrödinger meant to illustrate the absurdity of the idea that particles arenât any one thing, but a âcloud of probabilities.â
The Trump administration is stuck in a word cloud of probabilities of Donald Trumpâs own making. The war is over. The war is on. The war isnât a war. We have a deal, but we donât have a deal, but weâre about to have a deal. We destroyed Iranâs military. No, we left it intact. We want regime change. No, we donât. We already accomplished it. We âobliteratedâ Iranâs nuclear program a year ago. We had to go to war in February to prevent nuclear war. The Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, or something in between. No deal without âunconditional surrender.â Letâs make a deal!
This everything-all-at-once vibe can be disorienting, particularly since most Americans didnât have a war with Iran on their bingo cards until the shooting had already started. Trump didnât prepare the country or consult with Congress beforehand because he thought it would all be a smashing success in a matter of weeks.
The miscalculation that started it all: killing Iranâs supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and much of Iranâs senior leadership on the first day of the war. To âthe great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,â Trump announced on February 28. âWhen we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.â
https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz-boxed-in/